What’s next from Goldman Sachs,
via eFX
Risk-off/growth-off dynamics continue to dictate market price action
thus far in 2016, with fears seemingly centered on a slowing China
(December data continues to point to an ongoing deterioration in growth there),
the potential for further and more dramatic CNY weakness, and the widening
implications of falling oil prices, with front month crude oil trading below
$30/bbl for the first time since the Great Financial Crisis.
Typical "risk off" correlations have re-emerged: equities have
declined, bonds have rallied and the dollar has strengthened. The S&P 500 is
down 8.4% YTD, both long- and short-dated US Treasury yields are now back below
pre-December-rate-hike levels with the market-assigned
probability of a March hike hovering around 30%, and the trade-weighted USD has
strengthened alongside (and not against) other defensive DM currencies like the
JPY and EUR despite divergent monetary policy paths, with the CNY losing ground.
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