Earlier headlines gave the wrong impression
The US Census Bureau today revised retail sales estimates all the way back to 1992. The headlines from the announcement showed that March sales were revised to -0.4% from -0.3% but that’s gives the wrong impression because the prior trajectory was also adjusted.
Though still early yet, there have been some remarkable change in trend recently. Dollar is in retreat with the S&P 500 starting to slip. The Yen has surged while Gold has hit 15-month highs. Is something bigger stirring in the markets?
US Dollar Forecast – Dollar Struggles as Rate Disbelief Lingers, Euro and Yen Gain Ground
The Dollar dove to end this past week at its lowest level in 11 months. The extension of the currency’s slide from its 13-year high set back in late January (now down over 4.5 percent) was fueled by a distinct loss of traction in rate forecasts.
Euro Forecast – EUR/USD Showing Strength, But Data Still a Mixed Bag
The Euro just capped off a fairly strong week, rising against every major currency not named the Yen; but that had its own story behind it.
British Pound Forecast – GBP/USD to Face Larger Advance on Lackluster Fed Rhetoric
The slew of fundamental developments coming out of the U.S. economy may play a larger role in driving GBP/USD volatility especially as the U.K. docket remains fairly light for the first full week of May.
Chinese Yuan (CNH) Forecast – Yuan at High Risk amid Liquidity, Econ Data and Commodity Volatility
Both the onshore (CNY) and offshore Yuan (CNH) closed at a slightly higher levels against the US Dollar on Friday, following the biggest move in Yuan’s daily reference rate set by China’s Central Bank in over 10 years.
Canadian Dollar Forecast – Canadian Dollar Retains Upside Risk on Consistent Data Beats
A perfect storm has developed for Canadian Dollar bears. In addition to Oil having risen ~70% from the February 11 low and the US Dollar falling to levels not seen since June, the Canadian economy continues to outperform rivals in terms of economic new releases relative to economists’ expectations.
Australian Dollar Forecast – Australian Dollar Volatility to Continue on RBA, US Jobs Data
The Australian Dollar looks set for another week of breakneck volatility as another round of high-profile event risk comes across the wires.
Gold Forecast – Gold Price Surges to Largest Weekly Gain in 11 Weeks
Gold prices surged to the largest weekly gain of the past 11 weeks on the heels of the Fed doing nothing.
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Kementerian Kelautan dan Perikanan (KKP) yang dikepalai oleh Susi Pudjiastuti, baru-baru ini dilaporkan melakukan kerja sama dengan Spire Global. Startup asal Silicon Valley itu menyediakan layanan satelit untuk melacak wilayah maritim dan kondisi cuaca.
Dengan kerja sama tersebut, Spire Global akan membantu KKP untuk memantau 5,8 juta kilometer persegi wilayah Zona Ekonomi Eksklusif (ZEE) milik Indonesia, yang membentang dari ujung Indonesia timur sampai ujung Indonesia barat.
Spire Global menggunakan teknologi nanosatellite yang disebut dengan Spire Sense. Ini merupakan satelit kecil yang akan terbang ke angkasa, dan mengorbit dalam rentang waktu yang telah ditentukan. Lalu secara berkala Spire Sense akan memberikan informasi-informasi tentang kondisi laut.
“Saya senang bisa berkolaborasi dengan pemerintah Indonesia, dan berkontribusi menggunakan teknologi nanosatellite canggih dalam membantu KKP menindak kapal ilegal di wilayah kelautan Indonesia,” ujar Peter Platzer selaku CEO Spire Global, seperti dikutip dari Global Indonesia Voice.
Akibat kapal ikan ilegal, pada tahun 2014 Indonesia mengalami kerugian sebesar Rp101 triliun. Berdasarkan laporan dari WWF Internasional, angka tersebut sama dengan 25 persen dari total potensi laut Indonesia.
Lalu, semenjak Susi menjadi Menteri KPP, beliau dengan tegas mengatakan bahwa pihaknya akan mengebom kapal-kapal ikan asing yang melintas dan mencari ikan di wilayah kelautan Indonesia. Sebagai bukti, beberapa waktu lalu KKP menenggelamkan sebuah kapal ikan dari Vietnam yang ditemukan di zona kelautan tanah air.
Baca juga: Jokowi Perkenalkan 5 Startup Pertanian dalam Sinergi Aksi untuk Ekonomi Rakyat
(Diedit oleh Fadly Yanuar Iriansyah)
The post Susi Pudjiastuti Gunakan Teknologi Nanosatellite dari Startup Silicon Valley untuk Memantau Kapal Ikan Ilegal appeared first on Tech in Asia Indonesia.
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EUR/USD
Weekly
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
See REAL TIME trader positioning
-“The importance of the current juncture in EUR/USD cannot be understated. If resistance from a parallel (August high) and horizontal levels gives way, then EUR/USD could trade to the mid-1.20s, and maybe quickly given that the rate had held a 3+ decade trendline for over a year. The key word in that sentence is ‘if’. A bearish outside week just formed at the combination of parallel and horizontal resistance so respect potential for renewed weakness.” After following through on a bearish outside week, EUR/USD rallied every day this week. We’re back at resistance, which is also the neckline from a 14 month double bottom. A break higher would complete the pattern and set an objective near 1.24.
-For forecasts and 2016 opportunities, check out the DailyFX Trading Guides.
GBP/USD
Weekly
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
See REAL TIME trader positioning
-There is no change to weekly GBP/USD comments. “Recent price action formed a ‘tweezer bottom’ candlestick formation (FXTW pointed out tweezer bottoms in AUD/USD at the September and January lows). This is a reversal pattern. The fact that the pattern formed amid the chaos of headlines (sentiment extreme on ‘BREXIT’) and at a confluence of trendlines indicates increased risk for a decent sized bounce. General focus is higher, probably until the low 1.50s, although continued failure at an internal trendline is a concern. A crash could then take place into early 2017, based on a 96 month (8 year) cycle low count.”
AUD/USD
Weekly
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
See REAL TIME trader positioning
-There is no change to AUD/USD analysis. “AUD/USD is nearing the October 2013-January 2014 line near .7800. Also, risk of a top is heightened given COT considerations. It remains to be seen whether or not the cycle week that I first presented over a month ago has any influence. Inversion is a possibility. If resistance at .7800 breaks, then the next upside level of interest is probably .7938.” AUD/USD has responded to resistance. The combination of resistance, COT (overheated), and the longer term cycle analysis (1 week off) indicates renewed downside potential.
Weekly
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
See REAL TIME trader positioning
-NZD/USD has ‘faked out’ FXTW for about the last 2 months. In any case, NZD/USD is pressing against an important technical level marked by former support (former downtrend support) and ‘new’ uptrend resistance (channel). If NZD/USD is going lower, it needs to do so now.
Weekly
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
See REAL TIME trader positioning
-There are a host of technical considerations for USD/JPY support between roughly 105 and 106, including the 2002-2007 line, January 2014 high, October 2014 low, and 200 week average. After the turn higher last week, I turned constructive for a run into ‘the mid-116.00s’. I was (really) wrong as USD/JPY has plunged. Watch the 200 week average closely. USD/JPY rebounded from this average following the tops in 1998, 2002, and 2007. The decline from the 1990 top did not stop at this level however.
Weekly
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
See REAL TIME trader positioning
-FXTW views 1.2830 as a pivot. 1.2830 is both the March 2015 high and October 2015 low. Strength through 1.2830 would signal that at least a near term low is in or a near term bottoming pattern is forming. Until then, just know that USD/CAD is trading in the vicinity of support from the first half of 2015 (1.2350-1.2450).
Weekly
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
See REAL TIME trader positioning
-There is no change to the latest USD/CHF comments. “USD/CHF made a bullish outside week at the top side of former trendline resistance lines (long and short term). Given long term considerations, the low (.9498) could be significant. Some extremely long term technical considerations are worthy of note when looking at USD/CHF. Read about them here.”
