CIBC’s latest weekly outlook for the CAD and AUD
As the economy rebounded
in Q3, markets moved to price out the possibility of a further BoC
interest rate cut. That helped support the loonie even as oil started to
slide. However, that’s changed in the past week, with poor September
GDP, November employment and October trade figures suggesting that the
economy continues to struggle. That’s seen markets price in a greater
probability of another interest rate cut and seen the consensus trim its
forecast for Q4 GDP. But there’s probably more downgrades to come. And
even though we don’t forecast a rate cut, markets could certainly price
in a greater probability of one which would weigh on the loonie.
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